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Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate

The team have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Each composes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Discussions range over identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has possesses something to gain from the alternative arguments."

Call for Broader Dialogue

Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."